Projection of premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases in Thailand: 2000-2030.

This study aimed to assess the situation of premature mortality due to four noncommunicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases) between 2000-2018 in the Thai population aged 30 to 70 years, and the feasibility of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of reducing premature death by one-third by 2030. We estimated premature mortality using civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) from the Bureau of Registration Administration with cause of death coded by the Strategy and Policy Division. Verbal autopsy data were applied to improve accuracy of causes of death from the vital registry. We predicted the premature mortality up to 2030 using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The findings showed that given the current historical trend, achievement of the SDG target of 9.9% by 2030 was unlikely, as we predicted it to be 12.0% (95%CI, 10.6-3.6). However, this goal is more likely to be achievable in women than men. Among the four NCDs, respiratory diseases are most likely to reach the target.